tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5573426.post112187572823953709..comments2024-02-20T15:17:48.594+11:00Comments on A.E.Brain: A Bit of a WorryZoe Brainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13712045376060102538noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5573426.post-1122555428859272942005-07-28T22:57:00.000+10:002005-07-28T22:57:00.000+10:00Not really a big deal, because Chinese leaders kno...Not really a big deal, because Chinese leaders know American nuclear doctrine. Specifically, if the U.S. believes a country is immenently going to use nuclear weapons, official U.S. battle doctrine is a preemptive counterforce strike -- i.e., the U.S. nukes first.<BR/><BR/>So let's play out how things would go. Assume China attacks Taiwan. The U.S., committed to defending Taiwan, and considering this statement, will assume China will use nuclear force as soon as the U.S. acts to defend Taiwan. The U.S. accordingly would, as its first step in defending Taiwan, immediately launch a counter-force nuclear strike on China.<BR/><BR/>China, of course, knows this. So China knows that, if it invades Taiwan, it will be immediately nuked by the United States, precisely because it has threatened to use nukes over Taiwan. Knowing that no gains from a war to retake Taiwan would be worth enduring a nuclear bombardment, China won't invade Taiwan.<BR/><BR/>Accordingly, General Zhu just announced that Taiwan cannot be reclaimed by force, and that China has no plans to do so – but in a manner acceptable politically to Chinese nationalists.<BR/><BR/>Compare, back in 1996, when another Chinese leader said Taiwan wasn't worth a nuclear attack on Los Angeles. That was merely a face-saving way of making the point (durning a time of tension over Taiwan's democratic elections) that China was not willing to sacrifice <I>its</I> cities in an effort to seize Taiwan.<BR/><BR/>Yes, this is all rather funhouse-mirror world, but diplomacy and nuclear weapons interact to create some really weird situations.<BR/><BR/>Note that China holds a no nuclear first-strike policy, specifically to reassure the U.S. in advance of any period of tension that it won't use nukes, so the U.S. doesn't need to do a pre-emptive attack. China doesn't have remotely the force to launch a counter-force first strike, and its force would be severely degraded by one from the U.S.<BR/><BR/>Chinese nuclear forces were specifically a Samson-in-the-temple deterrent against a Soviet invasion/coup (to install a dependent satellite government). They're actually not all that important nowadays, since nobody really expects the anybody to invade China (which is a major reason the Chinese went along with the testing moratorium, depite not having the technology to maintain their nukes without regular tests). China is certainly pursuing a credible nuclear force, but currently their force is more dangerous to them (in that it might inspire a U.S. or Russian first strike against China) than anything else, though they have some value in intimidating neighbors unprotected by either Russian or U.S. nukes.Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05138730966226244399noreply@blogger.com