Over at TechLifePost, a prognostic article I wrote about the likely near-future of Space Development.
I wrote it before the questionnaire I mentioned in the previous post was made public, but the writing has been on the wall for some time now. Now things could change of course, my reading of tea-leaves is only 70% or so accurate at best, but that's really the way I think things will go. Had the Ares-I project not been in severe technical trouble, had off-the-shelf components actually been adequate, things may have been different. But they're not.