In their report, the Task Force had pronounced the prevalence of GID to be 1:11,900 (MtF) and 1:30,400 (FtM), using numbers that were based on counts of sex reassignments at a Dutch gender clinic during the 1980's
That's the official view of the American Psychological Association in its Report of the Task Force on Gender Identity and Gender Variance. We'll call it 1 in 10,000 though to make sure we over- rather than under-estimate.
So how many Blacks are there in America?
40.2 millionThat's from the last US Census. About half would be born looking male - call it 20 million. So one could reasonably expect the number of Black American TS women to be about 2,000. Roughly. Maybe a little less. Assuming the usual US birth rate of 10%, that means 200 are born every year. About. Probably a few more. (Births - deaths) is about 500,000 a year for the US Black population at large, so you'd expect an increase of about 50 a year. Roughly. About.
As of July 1, 2006, the estimated population of black residents in the United States, including those of more than one race. They made up 13.4% of the total U.S. population. This figure represents an increase of half a million residents from one year earlier.
Black Transwomen are being killed in hate crimes at a rate of 30 a year. They comprise the majority of murders of Transpeople. Deaths from all other causes, assuming the normal life expectancy of about 75, would be 1/75 of 2,000 - call it just under 30. Roughly. It's not that simple, you have to look at how many were born when, but it would be less rather than more, so I'll go with that figure.
Something is terribly, terribly wrong here. The rate of lynching of Black American Transwomen is at least comparable to, and probably exceeds, the expected death rate from all other causes put together. Even if my figures are out by a factor of 3, it's still the leading single cause of death for them.
I'd appreciate it if my rough figures could be checked and shown to be wildly wrong. Because they suggest that Black Transwomen in the USA have a greater than 1 in 7 chance of being killed in a hatecrime. And the numbers, instead of increasing by 50 a year, are only increasing by 20 because so very many are killed for being who they are.
Now I agree with Prof Lynn Conway that the APA's figures are distinctly dodgy, and an under-estimate. So I don't think things are quite that bad in reality. Yet that's what the official figures show. So why is not something being done about it?