Friday, 1 May 2020

1 in 28

There is better than a 9 chance in 10 that treatment with Remdesivir will save the life of 1 in 30 patients treated with it. A game changer it's not.

Unless you are that 1 in 30, and with ~60,000 deaths in ~1,000,000 confirmed cases, that would be 2,000 lives saved. Probably. 9 in 10 chance it's not coincidence.

While it's no magic bullet, with obvious dramatic beneficial effects, there is currently no good evidence that it has any dramatic deleterious effect. The question is, if you give it to a million patients, will it kill more or less than 2,000? Previous safety tests strongly suggest a lot fewer.

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