The picture of Everything

is here.

Enterprise at Mach 5

Actually Mach 5.2

The good people at the University of Queensland's Laser Diagnostics centre ran a Fascinating Experiment to see how aerodynamic the NCC-1701A shape was. It turns out that it's surprisingly good.

Greetings, Visitors from Samizdata.Net

I usually navigate to Samizdata.Net via the long list of Anti-Idiotarians put out by LGF. Along with Lileks, Den Beste, Tim Blair, Silent Running and of course Instapundit, the site's on my daily scan list.

So yes, I'm chuffed to pieces to be mentioned by that site.

Some previous posts that may be of interest to you:

The Long-Term Chinese Space Programme
The Great Tolkein Society Putsch including a link to "Gollum Sings the Blues" (Student Politics in the 70's)
The Ethical Treatment of Animals
M.I.T's Open CourseWare (with Pork Brains and Milk Gravy)
Who Armed Saddam?
A little-known chapter of WW II : Operation Safari
Design your Own Hell
Short-Circuiting the Brain Part II
The Protocols of the Elders of Barnum
Short-Circuiting the Brain Part I
A Guide to the Australian Political Ecology

And along the way you'll see things like "Blue Suede Shoes" in Klingon, and articles on Cyborgs. Visit the whole archives to see more

"Intermittent postings from Canberra, Australia on Software Development, Space, Politics, and Interesting URLs.
And of course, Brains..."

Hope you have fun.

Computer Security

For the less-than-expert Computer User.

That's the challenge posed by an article in The Register.

Anyone connected to the Internet, especially if they have Broadband, and doubly especially if they're using a Microsoft Operating System (that is, "Windows" of any description), should have a Firewall. No exceptions.

But how do you explain what a Firewall is, and why it's needed, when your audience really doesn't care about their Computer except as a means to do things like surf the Net? My interest in cars is much the same - does it go from point A to point B, is it easy to park, does it have enough space inside for my usual needs, what's the fuel economy, is it reliable, is it easy to drive. I don't care if it has Electronic Fuel Injection, Macpherson struts and a double-overhead cam with shimmied flunge-sprockets. Or not.

From the article mentioned above :

We can't just ignore the problems with insecurity that our non-IT friends, family, co-workers and acquaintances have with their computers. If their machines are compromised, we feel the effects, whether we realize it or not.

We feel the effects when we end up spending several hours each week doing pro bono IT work at the homes of the people we know (I've tried sending my Mom a bill, but she never pays, the deadbeat).

Been there, done that.

We feel the effects when the Internet slows to a crawl due to a sudden explosion of traffic caused by a particularly-virulent virus or worm.

We feel the effects when we get even more spam, sent from compromised zombies to everyone else on the Net, or when those zombies are used in DDOS attacks on anti-spam Web sites.

We feel the effects when zombies owned by our unknowing friends and family are used to secretly host scams, or porn sites ... or worse.

The solution? Education.

...I can't teach my students everything, but I try to teach them something. Every security professional needs to do the same. We're at the forefront, like it or not, and it's up to us to help lessen the myriad of problems we see around us. Like it or not, we need to become educators - permanent educators - or we may find ourselves refloozling those hossenblobbets with tinklewickets one too many times.

I've already mentioned a free online Virus scanner in a previous post. And the Firewall I use is Zone Alarm.

I urge any reader who wants an explanation of what a Virus Scanner is, what a Firewall is, and why they're so important - and how to install them - to e-mail me.

A Contrast in Style, A Contrast in Substance

The most reviled form of Government in recent times has been National Socialism. With Good Reason. The two most famous - or infamous - National Socialist parties have been the NSDAP (Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei - National Socialist German Workers' Party) AKA "Nazi" party, and the ANSP (Arab National Socialist Party) AKA "Ba'ath" Party.

But... a bad form of Government executed by Good People is better than a good form of Government executed by Bad People. therefore present for you a contrast in styles, of two "National Socialist" movements, though one of them didn't call itself that. Judge for yourself.

	National Socialism often conveys Public Service messages in Militaristic terms, but not always.
	A Favourite theme is the Heroic Industrial Superman, forging a new National Pride.
	They seem to have a thing for Eagles as emblems. On Restaurants, on Posters for "World Peace"...
	They're good at showing how Decent, Normal Folk are on the way up from Misery and Despair
	Did I mention about the Eagles? Oh, and the paperwork, the licencing, the bureaucracy...
	Of course, not all National Socialist Regimes are created equal. Sometimes the differences are what is important, not the similarities.

National Socialism per se is not what made the Nazis, and the Ba'athists, evil. It was their penchant for attacking neutral countries, and for engaging in the wholesale slaughter of innocents. Auschwitz would have been an abomination regardless of the political system that created it. Whether feeding the families of political opponents into shredders or into ovens, that's just a matter of style. What's important is the matters of Substance, like the very real differences that existed between the Franklin&Eleanor team and Adolf.

Did I mention about the Eagles?

The Borg Hypothesis

The subtitle of this blog is

Intermittent postings from Canberra, Australia on Software Development, Space, Politics, and Interesting URLs.

And of course, Brains...

So it's interesting to see an Interesting URL which encompasses Software Development, Space, and Brains. A quote:

For long-duration space missions, we must approach Borgification from two directions:

• Machines, as we know them today, must become more biological in certain respects. They must possess functionalities such as self-repair and self-defense, for example. (Scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory are already working on systems that can train themselves to become new circuits.) Not just when the machines are in use, but also as they are created and decommissioned, processes must be more biological -that is, more like growing and recycling than manufacturing and discarding.
• Bodies, as we know them today, must become more machine-like in certain respects. We are already on that path, but taking it further, wouldn't it be nice, for example, to fix our bodies so that radiation and low gravity do less harm? Computational technology also holds great and perhaps more immediate promise, for instance, using artificial intelligence technologies inside us.

For long-duration space missions, we may have to put intelligent technologies inside of us. Brave new worlds are usually described in a context implying choice, choice of paths that might lead either to utopias or to hells. Perhaps humanity made its choice already, eons ago when creatures first began wondering at the stars.

One of my first posts on this blog was "Computer, Heal Thyself" (you'll have to scroll down to it). FedSat's High Performance Computing Experiment demonstrated exactly this biological-like "self-repair" capability when damaged by Radiation. This stuff is not too far away, we should be thinking about the ethical implications now.

Weird Wide Web

Imagine, if you will, a TV program that is an unholy hybrid of Pokemon, The Galloping Gourmet, Pot Black, and Sumo Wrestling.

There you have "The Iron Chef", where each week a challanger gets to take on the Three Gods of Cooking, the Iron Chefs!

Who can forget when one of the usual Judges, Dr Hattori, took on the Master of the Japanese School, Iron Chef Michiba.

"Iron Chef Michiba, I choose you!"

Today's ingredient.... Truffles! An ingredient so subtle, so rare, that just a hint can make all the difference to a culinary masterpiece. So of course they provided a whole basketful of them. There was Truffle Ice-cream, sliced Truffle in Port Wine, Spring Rolls with Truffle Jelly...

From one of the many(!) Fan Sites :

Get ready for the seaweed and giant eels to start flying as Ultimate Fighting Champion meets Julia Child in this Japanese cult hit. After the surprise ingredient is revealed, the challenger and the Iron Chef face off in a frenetic culinary battle against each other and the clock. The guest panel judges the menus to determine who is victorious and who is vanquished.

If you haven't seen the show, Iron Chef is a Japanese variety/cooking show of sorts. Known in Japan as "Ryori no Tetsujin" (Cooking Iron Man), it is produced by Fuji International TV. It started airing in 1993 until 1999 when the show ended its run. 1 or 2 specials are still usually produced in a year.

The concept of the show is that a flamboyant gourmand, portrayed by Kaga Takeshi, lives in his castle with his "Iron Chefs." These Iron Chefs are the top chefs in the culinary fields of Japanese, Chinese, French and Italian cooking. Each week, Kaga will choose a challenger chef (from anywhere on the planet) to "do battle" against his Iron Chefs. Kaga will present a theme ingredient and each chef will then be charged with preparing a multi-course meal that utilizes the theme ingredient in each course.

The chefs have one hour to cook. Then, Kaga and four judges taste the food and pronounce winner. Sometimes there are ties and a cook-off battle will need to be held. The great appeal of the show is its meld of sports commentary with a cooking show. There is a sidelines announcer, Ota Shinichiro, who provides a play by play commentary on the dishes as they are prepared. There are also two announcers, Fukui Kenji, who provides most of the announcements and Hattori Yukio, who is the "color" man and fills in the viewers with tidbits of culinary knowledge.

In the Grand Tradition of all Talent shows, the Judging panel consists of one person who actually knows something about the subject, one bon-vivant/raconteur, and one brainless bimbo. The specimens of the latter genus appear in Kimonos, and have less evident intellect than most of the ingredients. Perhaps more than some of the asparagus spears, but certainly less than any of the vertebrates, or even shellfish. About even with the Cabbage.

If you've never heard of it, seek it out. The Universe is a stranger place than you can imagine.

And then there's the Original Catalogue of ACME products! Why wait? Make your own Earthquakes! Loads of Fun!

Now, with 69% Less Evil!

Or, if you prefer,

Hu's on Second?

After yesterday's visit by US President Bush, Chinese Premier Hu Jintao's speech to Parliament came as a bit on an anticlimax. Well, a lot of an anticlimax. All the CNN and Fox glitterati and Presidential camp-followers had departed for fresher fields and pastures new. Instead of Fighters loaded with live missiles overhead, we only had a few unarmed and mostly harmless observation helicopters.

But then again, China is not at war.

In any other circumstances, the visit by the leader of the world's most populous country, and the 21st Century's emerging Superpower would have been not just a big, but a huge deal. Especially for placid Canberra, stuck away as we are in the middle of nowhere-in-particular, just a useful rest-stop between Sydney and the Snow Fields. There would have been a Media Frenzy, we wouldn't have heard the last of it for months. But as it is, we've barely heard the first of it.

Going in to work today, there were a number of Chinese flags alongside Australian ones. A bit more helicopter air traffic than usual. But that was about it.

The Full Text of Premier Hu's speech (courtesy of the Sydney Morning Herald is quite interesting. A few quotes:

Let me begin by expressing, on behalf of the Chinese government and people, my best wishes to you and, through you, to the courageous and hard-working Australian people.

Courageous? Hard-Working???!!! He really should visit here more often if he's under such misapprehensions...

Though located in different hemispheres and separated by high seas, the people of China and Australia enjoy a friendly exchange that dates back centuries.

The Chinese people have all along cherished amicable feelings about the Australian people.

Back in the 1420s, the expeditionary fleets of China's Ming Dynasty reached Australian shores.

A Ha! They do remember Zheng He! (See previous post)

For centuries, the Chinese sailed across vast seas and settled down in what they called Southern Land, or today's Australia.

They brought Chinese culture to this land and lived harmoniously with the local people, contributing their proud share to Australia's economy, society and its thriving pluralistic culture.

Harumph. Conveniently swept under the carpet is Australia's shameful record of mistreatment of Chinese immigrants in the 19th century - and the almost equally shameful "White Australia Policy" of the first half of the 20th. He should have mentioned it, as we're going to politely enquire when China's going to stop the cultural genocide in Tibet. And the harvesting of prisoners' organs. And the jails which are slave labour factories. True Friends should be able to criticise each other - without emnity.

How should countries go about their relations with one another in this complicated and diverse world?

It is a question that is on the minds of many people.

We are of the view that for a smooth conduct of state-to-state relations and for lasting peace and common prosperity, all countries should act in compliance with the following principles:

First, politically, they should respect each other, seek common ground while putting aside differences and endeavour to expand areas of agreement.

And not be so impolite as to mention Tibet in public. OK, no mention in public. Private is another matter - we would like some deeds, we're not out to score points.

Our world is a diverse place like a rainbow of many colours.

Civilisations, social systems, development models, as different as they may be, should nonetheless respect one another, learning from each other's strong points to make up for one's own weakness amid competition and comparison and achieving common development by seeking common ground while shelving differences.

By mutual respect politically, we mean that the political system and path of political development chosen by the people of each country should be respected.

Really don't mention any of this 'Human Rights' stuff, OK?

We have stepped up the building of rule of law in China, making sure that there are laws to go by, that the laws must be observed and strictly enforced and that violators must be dealt with.

This is one of China's great advances, though they still have a very long way to go. Until quite recently, the Law was basically whatever the local Communist party cadre said it was. In 20th Century China. 18th Century Russia, 17th Century France and 13th Century England, the whim of the local Aristocracy held the ultimate power over people's lives. This is now changing, and changing fast. In no more than a few decades, the Communist Party and the Guomintang in Taiwan will be indistinguishable from one another, if the rate of progress continues to accelerate. (Few people realise just exactly how Marxist the Guomintang is, and always was. Taiwan is not exactly "free" by contemporary standrads, even now).

As China-Australia relations prove, so long as they understand and treat each other as equals and respect their respective national conditions and circumstances, countries with different social systems may very well become partners of friendly cooperation with constantly increased common ground.

Let's not let Tibet come between us, OK? Fair enough - as I said, Australians don't wish to embarress China. Just see some justice done, with whatever face-saving is needed. And he's right - with increased contact comes increased understanding. This can lead to increased friction, when we understand exactly how different our societies are. But it can also lead to one or both partners deciding to change themselves for the better.

Having studied Chinese history, especially the Tai-Ping rebellion ( a civil war with a Loony Christian Sect which slew over 100 million people in the 19th century) - I can understand the repression of the Falun gong. To understand is not neccessarily to condone, but I'll be darned if I can think of a way of preventing a recurrence of Crackpot Religious Cult-ism without such an evil policy. I'm glad I'm not Hu, to have so much power over so many people scares the fertiliser out of me. I'd probably be far worse.

Anyway, I'd recommend people read the whole speech.

The reason I haven't commented on Bush's speech of the day before is because the whole thing should reaaly be read first. And unlike speeches by Chinese politicians, where nuance and indirection is everything, it's a speech by a Texan. Bush may not always speak plainly, but he has of neccessity to give that impression. Whatever the reason, his speech should also be read in full, and I'll be commenting on that later.

A thought has crossed my mind though: how better to arrange a China-US "understanding" about dealing with North Korea except by using a mutually trusted go-between who has a personal interest in seeing a solution formulated? Sorry, I've done some data analysis in the past - usually diagnosing bugs in complex systems - and getting such "hunches" on very tenuous evidence is a habit. As is being right worryingly often, maybe once in ten times. Pure speculation on my part, anyway.

Look Out! There are Llamas!

No, not Tibettan Abbots. From The Australian :

Ambulance crews called to the aid of a 72-year-old farmer who injured himself after tripping over a rabbit hole were left powerless to help him overnight after his herd of stubborn llamas leapt to his defence.

Graham Bailey who farms four South American llamas, called Milo, Bertie, Horatio and Felix, fell in a field on his farm near Kettering, north England, and was stranded for two hours before a passer-by heard his screams.

Attempts to rescue the stricken pensioner were scuppered when the head llama led the animals in a circle and began dancing around to protect him.

"The ringleader Milo stirred the others up," an air ambulance spokesman said.

Observations on the Media

Well, the Bushes have come, and gone. And Canberra feels like it's been rudely shaken awake, has looked about groggily for a bit, then has gone back to sleep.

No more constant roar of fighters in the sky. No more traffic chaos as roads are blocked without warning. The prime security measure was not to tell anyone exactly where the President was at any time, or how he'd get to the next engagement. This meant that you'd be driving along, and suddenly have to take a detour, sometimes of up to 15 kilometres.

By the way, the official scoring rate in the "SPOT POTUS" game was:
For seeing Bush's Head : 50 points
For seeing Bush's Torso : 100 points
For a full-rear view : 500 points
For a full-frontal view : 1000 points
For spotting Bush's Double : 2000 points
For spotting anyone in a Dark Suit with aviator glasses : 1 point
..talking into their cufflinks : 10 points
..using a shoephone : 50 points

This gives you an idea of the gravitas, decorum and respect for authority that is so much a part of Australian society. (Sorry, forgot the <sarcasm> tags)

Anyway, I was able to get into work today with no trouble. Getting home again was another matter, but never mind. Still, I was able to engage in the pastime of "people watching" of all the CNN and Fox reporters who were doing camera shots 1 level down, within 10 paces of the National Press Club Bar.

Some observations:

• Although the Fox and CNN news-crews do mix socially, yes, there is some animosity. Especially as many of the Fox people are former CNN. The cry "Splitters" was heard when I had a few words with them all together.
• I went for a quick 10 minute walk, leaving a CNN reporter talking 10-words-a-second on her 15th take or so. When I came back, she'd just finished the last take, and was plaintively asking "Was I OK?", pleading for a little ego-massage from the 4 crew (sound, lighting, script/makeup, video) on her team. I can testify that the characterisations in both "The China Syndrome" and "Groundhog Day" are perfectly faithful to reality.
• There's nothing so comical as seeing someone staring into a camera, hand to their ear, and nodding earnestly in dead silence. Especially on the third take.
• At no time was any of the crew more than 20 paces from the bar. Every cliche you've ever heard about TV reporters appears to be true.

Transcripts in the Sydney Morning Herald
George Bush's Speech
John Howard's Speech
Simon Crean's Speech (He's leader of the opposition, popularity rating about 16%)

21 Hour Tourism

Canberra's a quiet spot. OK, some people would call it "dead". It's a large country town with delusions of grandeur, and the legislation to back them up.

It's one of the few capital cities where there are prime-time adverts for sheep-dip. (I wish I was joking).

So having the leader of the world's most powerful nation, and the leader of the world's most populated one, coming in within hours of one another is a little bit out of the ordinary.

Air Force One just landed a few minutes ago (I heard the approach, I'm near the airport), F-18s are still buzzing around keeping the flies away, and by now the Bushes should be safely housed in the US Embassy - with a fine view of Parliament House, the Lodge (where the PM resides when he's in Canberra), and much of the Embassy precinct.

I hope he has a good night's sleep. He'll need it.

Canberra "International" Airport currently has 2 C-5A Galaxies, and at least one C-17 Globemaster III sitting on the tarmac, in addition to the 747 that the President and entourage flew in on.

Given that the largest aircraft ever to fly in here before was 1 C-5A a few years ago (which severely damaged the place), and a Thai Airways DC-10 that landed here a few months ago, they must have done some serious upgrading. The place is about the same size as the one in Bremen, Germany. Rather smaller than Leeds-Bradford in the UK. Cleveland, Ohio's is comparatively huge. As I said, Canberra's a country town.

Getting to work tomorrow is going to be problematical: the firm I work for is in the National Press Club building (Organised Chaos there today, 10 Busloads of Journalists came in at Lunchtime, plus some fairly large Groundstations for Satcoms). And that's in the precinct known as the "Parliamentary Triangle". Which will be closed off for much of the day. A few hundred metres away is Old Parliament House, whose back-lawn has been reserved for anti-Bush demonstrators. Those with a season-ticket can go back the next day and protest against the Chinese premier too. Given the sad state of Human Rights in China, I for one am glad that a minority at least is being consistent.

As for Journalists, they've been given access. Of a kind. There's exactly one opportunity to take photos, when the Bushes go and meet the Governor-General (the ceremonial Head-of-State). Government House is in a nice little park, so a Bus service will be provided from the Press Centre, at 8am. They should get there by 8.30. The photo-opportunity will be at 9.30, so they'll be cooling their heels for half an hour after setting up. No Bus service is provided for the return trip, they'll have to walk a few kilometres to get back to Civilisation. Bearing all their gear.

Someone's way of expressing their displeasure at the massive bias shown in reporting, no doubt.

As for Mr and Mrs Bush, they'll only be here for 21 hours, so it's unlikely I'll get to see them. Canberra's a sleepy, quiet place, but 21 hours isn't enough to see much of it. Pity.

Hopefully the Chinese Premier will get to see more of the place, but he's probably going to spend most of his time in Sydney. Most people wouldn't blame him.

Latest from London: Leopards De-spotted

Some evidence that the BBC might - I say might - be returning to Objective reporting is over on The Command Post.

Time will tell.

UPDATE : My Favourite Marxist, Prof. Norman Geras has noticed similar evidence.

Online Virus Detectors

Find out how many viral-like memes you've been exposed to with this Free Online Virus Scanner. That's you, not your Computer.

Find out how many virusses and worms have gotten through your defences with this Free Online Virus Scanner. That's your Computer, not you. (Highly recommended BTW - it's what I use as a tertiary line of defence).

Much Ado in Canberra

Yesterday, the skies of Canberra were filled with the sound of Military Jet Aircraft. A 50-km Exclusion Zone has been established, in preparation for the near-simultaneous visits of US President Bush and Chinese Premier Hu Jintao.

I might just pop over to the airport and have a squizz at the C-17s that are bringing in all the US Not-so-Secret-Service people. Traffic on Thursday will be difficult, as I work rather close to the Parliamentary Precinct, quite near the area set aside for anti-Bush demonstrations. Carmel and I might take the day off to wish Bush well, and congratulate Hu Jintao on China's first step into Space.

Hope they both like the place. It's usually a bit quieter.

Fun with Colloids

I never knew you could do this with custard.

Australia and Malaysia

A piece brought to my attention by Little Green Footballs. From News Limited :

Malaysia's controversial leader, Mahathir Mohamad, continued his war of words with the West yesterday when he vowed to treat Australia as a "terrorist" if it acted like a US sheriff in the region.

Dr Mahathir - already under fire for remarks this week in which he said that "Jews rule the world" - was responding to reported comments by US President George Bush saying Australia was America's "sheriff" in South-East Asia.

"I can assure Australia that if it acts as a sheriff in this country it will be treated as a terrorist and dealt with as a terrorist," he said.

Here's what Australia's PM, John Howard, said, quoted in the same article:

"The more co-operation there can be, the better," Mr Howard said before he left Sydney.

"In many ways, co-operation between Australia and Indonesia and Singapore and other countries in the region is a template for what the wider world should do."

Note the omission of a certain country beginning with "M"?

Sometimes what's not said is more important as what is said.

Australia, unlike the USA, the UK, and France, has only got one foreign base in the world. One. To have a foreign base on one's own soil requires a rare degree of trust. Australia's one foreign base is RAAF Butterworth, near Penang, in Malaysia.

I repeat, sometimes what's not said is more important as what is said.

Who knew?

The Thing is Jewish

Something is Rotten in the State of France

There is an ancient and honourable pastime in much of the Anglophone world. It's called "Frog-Bashing", and consists of poking good-natured and not-so-good-natured fun at France and all things French. The French, bless their little hearts, do much the same thing against "Perfidious Albion" and "le Rosbifs".

From an outsider's viewpoint, France and the UK have so much in common - compared to, say, the Thais and the Chinese - that it's no wonder that the similarities lead to "sibling rivalry". In Germany, for example, English is classified along with other "Latin" languages such as French and Spanish. In France, no doubt, English is looked upon as a Teutonic language, such as German or Danish.

I've been known to engage in this pastime myself. It's racist, but as long as the French give as good as they get (and they do), and no-one takes it too seriously, it's relatively harmless.

But this post is not "Frog-Bashing". It's rather more serious.

Firstly, we have Jacques Chirac (currently evading criminal charges) pronouncing that any criticism of the Malaysian PM's recent Judnehass has "no place in the EU". He has a point - but if so, then the recent pronunciamentos by the German Foreign Minister, and Chirac himself, also have no place. No, this is the same attitude that led to the collaboration with the Nazis in annihilating French Jewry, from the same people that brought you l'Affaire Dreyfuss. It's no surprise that the unspeakable Le Pen and his blackshirts - sorry, his Front National came second in the last presidential elections.

Secondly, we have this little gem, quoted from The Australian :

Two people were injured as protesters disrupted a live prime time French television show, forcing the popular talent contest show off the air.

The injured people were hospitalised and three protesters arrested, a police spokesman said today.

A hundred protesting arts technicians and performers, angered by planned welfare cutbacks in their industry, invaded the stage during the live transmission of the "Star Academy" show in which pop-star hopefuls perform.

Three of the protesters were arrested for violence and public order offences by police in the Seine-Saint-Denis suburb of eastern Paris.

During the protest "there were skirmishes. Two people had to be hospitalised".

No minor scuffle, this.

A hostess of the TF1 channel had her arm broken while the other casualty was one of the protesters. Several others ended up with cuts and bruises, the police said.

Here we have a country that prides itself on its Culture. And the guardians of the culture, the "bleeding Hearts and the Artists" take their stand by publically beating up women and breaking bones. And why?

The actors and technicians have been protesting for months over controversial welfare reforms for the arts industry. Their action forced the cancellation of the summer season's two most prestigious cultural festivals.

An agreement reached by employers and three moderate unions in June was intended to safeguard a unique system, under which performers and technicians in the arts have social protection during long periods without work.

The regime is used by around 100,000 people but it runs at an annual deficit of around $A1.4 billion, and under the changes workers would have to contribute for longer and for less benefit.

Two hardline unions CGT and FO have led a campaign of strikes and demonstrations against the accord.

Such an "income equalisation" policy seems perfectly rational - Australia does much the same with Farmers, taking more money when times are good, and doling it out in times of drought. (It's actually done by allowing farmers to pay tax on their "average" income) But it's revenue-neutral. Over the long term, you can only get out what you put in.

The problem with the French "panem et circenses" is that they have not been adequately funded, because not enough money has been raised from those who dine at the public trough. This privileged elite naturally wish to remain in their aristocratic position, subsidised by the peasants. And they are willing to commit any form of mayhem in order to get their own way.

Students of French history in the late 30's will recognise the situation. The malaise is recurring.

They used to call it "The English Disease."

Lunar Colonisation

I've been considering the Chinese Space Programme, and the more I look at it, the more I think the Devil is in the details.

There's been a lot of pooh-poohing of the latest Chinese space exploit. As well as a lively debate (and a real stinker of a pun) on what it all means:

For the Chinese it's a very historic event, said Marcia Smith, a policy analyst at the Congressional Research Service in Washington, D.C. "It demonstrates that they have the technological ability to put humans into space. Where it all leads, I think it's still up in the air," Smith said.

Ouch! Well I warned you about the pun. To continue:

The Chinese have discussed plans for their human spaceflight program, Smith said, that includes building space stations and maybe, some day, even sending people to the Moon. "Those are very expensive endeavors and time will tell whether or not they consider that to be a worthwhile investment."

I think Matt Bille is closer, but still not quite on-target:

"It has been 42 years since the last time a nation put its first human into space," said Matt Bille, a space historian and analyst for Booz Allen Hamilton in Colorado Springs, Colorado.

"The Chinese have clearly done this very methodically, developing their technology step by step and testing the spacecraft four times before now," Bille noted. "I suspect we are going to see a logical program of building up their capability in low Earth orbit to do long-term stays and focus on earth science, industrial applications, and other capabilities that have some payoff for their economy as well as national pride," he said.

Yes, they've been methodical. This is not some flash-in-the-pan Space Spectacular for no more worthy a goal than National prestige. It's not a Space Race as such - because a Race implies that they're competing against some other entity. No, after consulting my Crystal Ball, taking the auguries, and examining the entrails of a goat, I think they're in it for the long term. I'm not talking about Scientific missions to Mars, or even Exploratory missions to the Moon. I'm talking about setting up a permanent presence. Not next year. Not next decade, nor the one after that. But certainly within the next 50 years. I think that they have a plan. A flexible one, that will adapt to changing circumstances and unforeseeable problems, but a plan nonetheless.

There was no funding for lunar projects in the ten-year space plan approved in 2001. By July 2001 a Chinese aerospace magazine indicated that Chinese scientists had drafted a much more modest four-phase long term plan.
Phase 1, by 2005: Lunar flyby or orbiting satellite missions, perhaps using the DFH-3 bus.
Phase 2, by 2010: unmanned soft-landing missions.
Phase 3, by 2020: Robotic exploration using surface rovers.
Phase 4, by 2030: Lunar sample return missions.
Only after 2030 would manned flights and construction of a lunar base begin.

The Shenzhou manned spacecraft provides the Chinese with the required hardware to pursue a lunar program whenever they make the decision to go.

It would surprise me if the schedule didn't slip. But no matter, there's no hurry. The last sentence in the quote above is important, and it's one of the details I mentioned intially.

Unlike the primitive Mercury "capsule" that Alan Shepard and John Glenn went up in, or the bigger but even more primitive Vostok that Yuri Gargarin orbitted in, the Shenzhou design is almost certainly the most advanced manned spacecraft ever flown.

Remember, the ambitious and hi-tech Shuttle is a 1970s design with some 1980's electronics. The latest Soyuz spacecraft is still only incrementally improved on a 1970s design. And the Apollo - hasn't changed since the mid 70's. We're talking very primitive electronics indeed.

The Shenzhou is obviously similar in many ways to the latest Soyuz (Soyuz TMA). But the differences are quite large when examined in detail. Firstly, it's a whole heap bigger. 13% bigger.

The spacecraft strongly resembled the Russian Soyuz spacecraft, and like the Soyuz, consisted of a forward orbital module, a re-entry capsule, and an aft service module. The configuration was very much like the original Soyuz A design of 1962 (itself, in turn, alleged to be very similar to the US General Electric Apollo proposal of the same period). Orientation instruments, evidently consisting of horizon, ion flow and/or stellar/sun sensors, were located at the middle bottom of the service module, as on the Soyuz spacecraft. Two pairs of solar panels on the service and orbital modules had a total area of 36 square metres, indicating average electrical power of over 1.3 kW (nearly three times that of Soyuz and about that of the original Mir base module). Unlike the Soyuz, the orbital module was equipped with its own propulsion, solar power, and control systems, allowing autonomous flight. In the future the orbital modules could also be left behind on the 921-2 space station as additional station modules. A stretched version of the orbital modules was also evidently under consideration as a space station element. The basic spacecraft was capable of manned missions of up to 20 days, with autonomous missions of the orbital module of up to a year.
-Encyclopedia Astronautica

Consider this plan, formulated in the US in the early 90s, using "off the shelf" Apollo hardware to make a relatively swift and cheap return to the Moon. Shenzhou could be even more suitable - not as swift, but even cheaper.

Along the way, the Chinese will have to build a space station, practice Earth Rendezvous, send up and construct a Lunar mission out of a number of smaller payloads, and develop a "kicker" booster to take the whole thing to the Moon. Something along the lines of the US Centaur E. They'll also have to develop landers, firstly robot ones, and supply vessels. Probably some lunar orbitting satellites for pinpoint navigation and communications.

But they then get to do a bit of colonising of their own.

This is not going to be all that expensive, providing the long-term view is taken, and there's no radical urgency to be short-term penny-wise and long-term pound-foolish, or gain a few weeks on the schedule by drowning problems in a sea of dollars. And, as a "spin-off", China gets prestige, more hard currency from launching commercial satellites, a significant military recon capability, independence from relying on GPS, and who knows, maybe money from space tourism. Technologies that they'll develop along the way may well spur Chinese industrial capabilities too, as they did in the US and USSR.

My Crystal Ball says that the Chinese remember Zheng He, () and won't make that particular mistake again.

I could easily be wrong, but I calls 'em how I sees 'em.

Comments

I got a good chuckle out of your calling my post about China's First Human
Spaceflight "pooh-poohing." I believe that is the first time in my life I
have ever been accused of pooh-poohing something. While I would personally
call my attitude towards the event ambivalence, you definitely wrote about
an aspect of the story that I missed: What the future plans of the Chinese
are (or could be) in space.

I always enjoy reading your writing. Keep up the good work.

::Mark Oakley