Tuesday, 20 January 2004

The Slings and Arrows

...of outrageous fortune have caused blogging to be very sporadic this month. In fact, they've not been so much slings and arrows as bloody great howitzers and machine guns. Let's see, so far in 2004:
  • Out of the blue, a good friend of mine had some sort of stroke on the 2nd of January, and died two days later. I was Best Man at her wedding (to another good friend of mine) two years ago and I've been trying to give what comfort I can to a grieving widower.
  • The day Louise died (Dave and I were with her at the end, 0230), I was put on "indefinite unpaid leave", basically, I lost my job.
  • Then my sister broke her ankle very badly, and I had to tranport her to the hospital, and look after her overnight - but had to work (unpaid) all day Saturday and Sunday on a tender due at 2pm on Monday.
  • Three days ago, I received an e-mail from a friend of mine in the USA - her husband has just been diagnosed with extensive small-cell lung cancer, and has at best months to live. I'm still in shock over this one, her daughter is supposed to be visiting Australia in a few months as part of a Youth Orchestra.
  • And my favourite niece is now in hospital up in Sydney, suffering from clinical depression.
2004 has really, really, really not been a wonderful year so far.

I'd say it can only get better, but in fact, things could be a lot worse.

Friday, 16 January 2004

Self Assessment

As a follow-up to Design Your Own Hell, I invite readers to take a self-assessment. Here's mine:

The Dante's Inferno Test has sent you to the First Level of Hell - Limbo!
Here is how you matched up against all the levels:
LevelScore
Purgatory (Repenting Believers)Very Low
Level 1 - Limbo (Virtuous Non-Believers)Very High
Level 2 (Lustful)High
Level 3 (Gluttonous)Low
Level 4 (Prodigal and Avaricious)Very Low
Level 5 (Wrathful and Gloomy)Very Low
Level 6 - The City of Dis (Heretics)High
Level 7 (Violent)Low
Level 8- the Malebolge (Fraudulent, Malicious, Panderers)Moderate
Level 9 - Cocytus (Treacherous)Low

Take the Dante's Divine Comedy Inferno Test

Charon ushers you across the river Acheron, and you find yourself upon the brink of grief's abysmal valley. You are in Limbo, a place of sorrow without torment. You encounter a seven-walled castle, and within those walls you find rolling fresh meadows illuminated by the light of reason, whereabout many shades dwell. These are the virtuous pagans, the great philosophers and authors, unbaptised children, and others unfit to enter the kingdom of heaven. You share company with Caesar, Homer, Virgil, Socrates, and Aristotle. There is no punishment here, and the atmosphere is peaceful, yet sad.

Actually... I can live with that (so to speak), as long as those who I love are there or in a better place. In fact, playing games with the unbaptised infants and making them laugh would be my idea of Heaven, and I wouldn't want to be anywhere else.

It's been found!

No, not Saddam's cache of WMDs. That's still to come - after all, hidden stockpiles of Japanese gas weapons from WW II are still claiming lives.

No, it's a long lost Dr Who Episode, the first one recovered from the bit-bucket since 1999. Ya Who!

Today's Brain Article : BrainGate

A piece of good news. From Wired :
Five quadriplegic patients might be months away from testing a brain-computer interface created by Cyberkinetics, a privately held company in Foxboro, Massachusetts. The company's system, called BrainGate, could help patients with no mobility to control a computer, a robot or eventually their own rewired muscles, using only their thoughts. If the trials go well, a product could be on the market by 2007.

Cyberkinetics already has trained monkeys to move a cursor using only thought, and has asked the Food and Drug Administration for permission to test the device on humans. Tim Surgenor, the company's president and CEO, said he expects his researchers will be plugging five people into BrainGates by the end of 2004.


China's Space Plans Updated

From the ABC :
Around the same time as President George W Bush was unveiling the next steps in America's space exploration program, China announced its space plans.

The country's official newsagency says China aims to launch 10 satellites this year, along with a lunar probe in December.

The country will also try to land an unmanned vehicle on the Moon by 2010.

Within the next two years China will put another astronaut, possibly two, into space.

Thursday, 15 January 2004

Top of the Blogs

The 2004 Australian Blog Awards are taking votes at the moment.

Thanks to all who nominated A.E.Brain in the "Best ACT Blog" and "Best Technical Blog" categories.

My personal favourites in these categories?

ACT Blogs : Funnily enough, all the nominated ACT blogs with any political content seem to be fairly right-wing, like me.

Tech Blogs : I've no idea how much cred this poll has. But I do know that when looking through the nominated blogs, I found some real gems.

And my thanks to those who nominated this blog. I'll try to live up to your expectations.

Technovelgy

No, not a misprint.

Today's "Interesting URL" is Technovelgy's archive of interesting technological news clippings. Some of the latest subjects: Technovelgy also has as its primary theme a list of "Inventions from Science Fiction". Telling the lists of SF Inventions from Real ones is getting increasingly difficult as time goes by. Which I suppose is to be expected.

Bush gets it Right

From Space Daily :
President George W. Bush on Wednesday unveiled plans for a US return to the moon as early as 2015, saying a lunar base would be a launch pad for manned missions to Mars and "across our solar system."

"We do not know where this journey will end, yet we know this, human beings are headed into the cosmos," he said at the headquarters of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
[...]
The plan calls for completing US obligations to the International Space Station (ISS) by 2010, and retiring the agency shuttle fleet around that time, with the goal of replacing it with a new "Crew Exploration Vehicle" that could carry humans to the moon and beyond.

The new Crew Exploration Vehicle would be tested by 2008 and conduct its first manned mission no later than 2014, the White House said, while work on the ISS would focus on research into the effects on humans of space travel.

US astronauts could return to the moon as early as 2015 but at least by 2020, and setting up a base to sustain "an extended human presence," the president said.
I think 2008 is probably wayyyy too ambitious for getting a reliable system up and running, given the parlous state of the US manned space programme. But apart from that, I think he´s spot-on.

As I said in previous posts, robots do science better than people. But scientific research isn´t the only reason for space exploration, we need to colonise the solar system, not just observe it. In Signs and Portents, I played up the Lunar Base angle, and didn´t mention Mars at all. This is because I see a Lunar Base as being, if not absolutely neccessary, then a really useful first step along the way.

Consider: it will take several months to get to Mars. Then it will take a year before the return journey can start. This means we really should get our act together in setting up extended-stay missions in inhospitable environments first.
"With the experience and knowledge gained on the moon, we will then be ready to take the next steps of space exploration: Human missions to Mars and to worlds beyond," said Bush.
Exactly.

There's another issue too. In the short term, we need a permanent - though not neccessarily self-sustaining - lunar base. In the medium term, a self-sustaining base would be very desirable. One containing a reasonably diverse biosphere, with a lot of genetic variation. This is because there are far too many plausible accidents that can press the "Intelligent Life Reset" button on planet Earth, from runaway Greenhouse to runaway Iceworld, from super-duper Volcanoes to larger-than-average cometary impacts. Most of these would merely wipe out Civilisation, and that would be recoverable given a hundred thousand years. Most of the remainder would merely wipe out Humanity and most other animals larger than a matchbox, but that too is recoverable given a few hundred million years. But there are accidents that would wipe out all but a few lithophilic bacteria, and sterilise the place to a depth of several kilometres. That would set the place back billions of years, enough so that the odds of Intelligent life evolving again before the Sun starts becoming a "fixer-upper" are too long.

This may in fact be why SETI hasn't picked up anything. The Universe is a dangerous place for species confined to a single planet. By having 2, we greatly increase the odds of survival in the long term. We may cut the downtime due to an unfortunate accident from thousands to hundreds of years, from millions to thousands, or from billions to millions.

It can be argued that if we're talking about such long-term issues, what's the hurry? Whether we go boldly forth etc. now in 200X or in 900X doesn't matter much. But the problem with that, as we've seen after Apollo, is that tomorrow never comes. There's always something more important on the agenda, be it saving the starving millions or subsidising theatre. The money that was budgeted for Lunar exploration was instead diverted to "good works", Health, Education and Welfare. Now if it had made a significant difference to those areas, it would be hard not to argue that the money was well spent. But is the US now free of poverty, or even significantly less burdened by social security compared with 1970? Has the educational system improved so much that it was worth the lost opportunities? Is the US Health system so greatly improved that it's a model for the world to follow? I think not. Individuals may have benefitted, but then again, it may be that the additional injection of funds just generated more Pork for the barrel, and took some worthwhile projects with it. Any benefits appear to have been "lost in the noise" compared to the opportunities foregone.

But that's in the past. We must now look towards the future. Because that's what the Chinese are doing.

Heck, maybe I won't go to the Moon, but maybe Andrew will.

UPDATE : The Cumudgeon's view :
My last thought for the time being is that if we get bogged down in arguments over details and implementation, there will still be people going to the Moon in the fullness of time. But they will speak Chinese.
Also via the Cumudgeon, a link to the full text of Bush's speech.

Voyage to Arcturus points out a few more steps on the way to Mars. Maybe Phobos and Deimos first.

Rand Simberg at Transterrestrial Musings :
While I'm glad that the president has stated a national goal of finally getting humans beyond earth orbit, I'm disappointed that those humans are apparently to continue to be NASA employees, who the rest of us watch, voyeuristically, on television. NASA was not just given the lead--it was apparently given sole responsibility. There was no mention of private enterprise, or of any activities in space beyond "exploration" and "science." It was encouraging to hear a president talk about the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, but only in the context of how to get to the next milestone.
Good points.

Prof Hall has a post about some advantages to a Lunar Base that I wasn't aware of.

The Rocket Man has a neat roundup.

Wednesday, 14 January 2004

Star Wars Down Under

Standard Missile LaunchFrom The Australian :
An Australian decision to join the US in developing a long-range missile defence shield would destabilise regional security, Indonesia's chief foreign ministry spokesman warned today.

Australian Defence Minister Robert Hill today said Indonesia was comfortable with Canberra's decision to proceed with planning for a missile shield, which in Australia's case could be based around advanced air defence warships equipped with long-range missiles.
[...]
Djoko Susilo, a member of the Indonesian parliament's commission for security, defence and foreign affairs, yesterday said Australia's consideration of air warfare destroyers for the navy capable of shooting down ballistic missiles in space was an aggressive move.
Leaving aside the Indonesian fulmination about Australia´s aggression in deciding it should be able to avoid being a helpless target for any Ballistic Missile that wanders our way, there are some items of technical interest.

It appears that our Lords and Masters have decided that we need things called Standard SM-2(ER) Block IV-A´s. These are basically common-or-garden anti-aircraft missiles on steroids. But they do have one unusual property: they´ve been proven to have an ABM (Anti Ballistic Missile) Capability. At least against "short- and medium-range ballistic missiles".

A test on December 11th scored a direct contact hit on an incoming ballistic missile with a similar profile to that of a Scud or North Korean NoDong.

It´s important to realise that hitting an ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) is rather more difficult. Systems like this are designed as Theatre Ballistic Missile Defences, not Strategic ones. They´re for KO´ing incoming tactical missiles, usually headed towards ports or friendly form-up areas.

Such a capability is directly relevant to the types of activity Australia has engaged in recently, where we´ve sent in Naval Task Forces into the Gulf and elsewhere, sometimes in conjunction with the US Navy, but sometimes alone. Acquiring some Air-and-Space Defence ships will enable the ADF (Australian Defence Forces) to protect our own expeditionary forces, without having to rely on the US.


Tuesday, 13 January 2004

Back On-Line

A tumultuous week. Work over the weekend, several trips to 2 different hospitals, one funeral of a good friend. Something had to give, and one of the many things was blogging. However, the panic is now officially over, at least till next time.

I've had better starts to a year.

Friday, 9 January 2004

Signs and Portents

B5 reference
China's nanotechnology patent applications rank third in world

Bush to announce plans for Lunar Base

BTW the image is from the Babylon 5 episode, "Signs and Portents".

Tuesday, 6 January 2004

Normal Service

...will be resumed as soon as possible. Probably in a few days. Real Life TM is getting in the way at the moment, involving hospital, funeral etc. Not my immediate family, but close friends.

Saturday, 3 January 2004

Turn of Phrase of the Week

From The Independant :
"The people have spoken... the bastards."
The story in full:
It was trailed as a "unique chance to rewrite the law of the land". Listeners to BBC Radio 4's Today programme were asked to suggest a piece of legislation to improve life in Britain, with the promise that an MP would then attempt to get it onto the statute books.

But yesterday, 26,000 votes later, the winning proposal was denounced as a "ludicrous, brutal, unworkable blood-stained piece of legislation" - by Stephen Pound, the very MP whose job it is to try to push it through Parliament.

Mr Pound's reaction was provoked by the news that the winner of Today's "Listeners' Law" poll was a plan to allow homeowners "to use any means to defend their home from intruders" - a prospect that could see householders free to kill burglars, without question.

"The people have spoken," the Labour MP replied to the programme, "... the bastards."

Having recovered his composure, Mr Pound told The Independent: "We are going to have to re-evaluate the listenership of Radio 4."
Fatuously Post-Modernist even for a Politician: if the data doesn´t match the theory, change the data.

Friday, 2 January 2004

Virtual Brunch

A bit of shameless name-dropping here : I attended a New Year´s Day Brunch in Minneapolis, along with Gnat and James Lileks, hosted by Gnat´s Nana, she of the best-darned-caramels-ever-seen-on-the-planet.

Well, I attended by phone, anyway. Less calories.

While we´re on the subject of name-dropping, may I recommend having a squizz at The Command Post, especially Alans and Micheles review of "2003 : That Was The Year, That Was". Some highlights:
In the first few weeks, we broke one million visitors. We were featured in Time, Newsweek, the Washington Post, Newsday, several radio shows and a myriad of other publications I can't think of off the top of my head. We were being fed tips by important people at important locations. We were linked to by major media outlets. It was an interesting time.


Thursday, 1 January 2004

Interesting URLs for 2004

10 Adverts you won´t see in the USA, including an award-winning one that lasts 2 minutes, and is really a short film rather than an advert.

And a highly addictive download (for Windows and Mac), Ball Droppings, which can be described as a multimedia instrument, a software toy, or a virtual kinetic sculpture. (Thanks to Samizdata.net)

Talking about multimedia instrument downloads, the BBC has a Theramin emulator for Windows. The Theramin is the instrument that produces the peculiarly spooky music that is found in old 50s Science Fiction Films, and has a particularly interesting history.

Enjoy.

Happy New Year

4 years ago, during the turnover 1999-2000, I didn´t spend the time partying like it was 1999. I spent it in front of a computer, with a phone next to me, calling various hospitals in Australia and posting e-mails to Pittsburgh, PA.

There's a 17 hour time difference between Canberra and (for instance) Minneapolis. My (acting, unpaid, supernumary) job was to canvass the local medical centres and report any Y2k problems that were critical to a central point. I couldn&acut;t save someone here in Oz whose Life Support system suddenly went on the Fritz, but by relaying the make and model of the equipment, I might be able to save dozens or hundreds in the USA and Europe.

I finally went to bed about 7 am local time - with no major problems reported, and remarkably few minor ones.

We coped pretty well with Y2k. There will be a few glitches in late February this year, there always are on leap-years. The boundaries of Human Stupidity are constantly expanding. But we should be right, at least until 2038.



Monday, 29 December 2003

Hive Minds, Blogs, and Brains

I´ve been meaning for some time to post some of my thoughts and deductions on the nature of Intelligence, and especially the "emergent behaviour" of groups of intelligent, semi-intelligent, or unintelligent nodes.
Which is jargon for how beehives and nations can be considered in some sense to be thinking creatures in their own right, independant of their constituent bees and citizens.

But now Steven Den Beste has trumped me, and has produced one of the finest pieces of writing on the subject I´ve ever read, in or out of a PhD thesis. Please go read the whole article, it´s another one of Steven´s tour de forces, inordinately long and yet full of meat. Low-fat. Juicy. Brain food at its finest.

There are a few things I would have added, had I written the article:
  • A little on Naked Mole Rats, the only mammal as far as I know that behaves in agregate more like a colony life-form (like a beehive, a coral reef, or a portugese man o´war) than a group of independant animals.
  • How the complexity of behaviour (and hence intellect) of a colony/hive-mind can be less than any of its component parts: Ask yourself, which is more complex, the behaviour of a lynch-mob, or the behaviour of one person in it? Which has the higher IQ?
  • Like Steven, my intuition says that Chaos theory means that Digital hardware (e.g. computers as we know them) cannot behave the same way that Analog hardware ( e.g. biological brains ) do. Yet as I´ve blogged before, there is a growing body of evidence that suggests the contrary, and at the lowest level, everything (except according to recent theory, time) is quantised (hence in some sense digital) anyway.
  • Something on the various prosthetic Brain parts, Cyborgs and Hybrots that have appeared in previous posts of mine - and the demonstrations of short-circuiting the Brain.
  • Some speculation on exactly why
    Democracy is the worst form of government except for all those others that have been tried.
    W.S.Churchill
    How "emergent behaviour" describes remarkably well a Theory of how Democracies work as well as they do, the paradox of why Meritocracies have a poor track record in comparison, and exactly how a Representative Democracy may be an optimised synthesis of the two.
But that´s about it. There is the makings of a cracking good book in this post of his, I hope he has time to write one.

Sunday, 28 December 2003

Happy Birthday Fedsat

Amidst the somewhat discouraging news - or rather, lack of news - about Beagle II, I was reminded that I missed a very important Birthday.

Fedsat´s.

It went up on December 14, 2002, and since then has done some 5000 orbits and travelled 230 million kilometres. It scored 2 notable Space Firsts, the demonstration of self-healing by FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Arrays) of radiation damage, and the first use of Ka-band communications by a microsatellite. Oh yes, it´s also our first satellite in 30 years, one of the most complex satellites of its size ever built, and won an award as one of the top 5 Enginering Achievements in Australia for 2003.

From a CRCSS Press Release:
If everything had gone according to plan, Australia´s FedSat satellite project would have been a stunning engineering achievement. That it succeeded despite the collapse of its foreign prime contractor made the achievement even more remarkable.

Left with little more than an incomplete shell, unassembled pieces and unfinished software, the engineering team from the Cooperative Research Centre for Satellite Systems hastily revised their plans. Instead of having the satellite bus (its structural framework of solar cells, power and control systems) completed in Britain, the team relocated to Canberra, taking the pieces with them.

And instead of facing only the difficult enough tasks of integrating the satellite´s four complex payloads with the structure, and testing the completed satellite, the team was now confronted with the need to first complete the platform, while simultaneously dealing with increased project costs and the rapidly-approaching launch deadline.
To call the software "unfinished" is a bit of a misnomer: I think about 5% of the code remained unchanged, large slabs had to be completely re-designed, and even more created from whole cloth. The hardware was in similar shape, and the test instrumentation even worse. And the requirements kept on increasing, we ended up with rather more than 4 experimental payloads. Never mind, it all worked out in the end. At one stage, when things were looking a little dicey about a year before launch, I told the head of Auspace that they would - or rather, that I guaranteed the software we were writing would work, I staked my personal and professional reputation on it. And workled it did, as the electronics and structural teams performed magnificently too. As well as being as fine a bunch of people as I´ve ever worked with, they were, and are, bloody good Engineers.

Another group of similar sorts, also trying to do the fiendishly difficult on a shoe-string has been blessed with less luck than us so far. Here´s hoping that despite the decreasing odds, contact will be established on Mars and we can say that "The Beagle Has Landed". My fingers are firmly crossed anyway, a technique that worked during the Fedsat launch.

Saturday, 27 December 2003

Traditional Aussie Christmas Fare

We spent Christmas and Christmas Eve indoors (wayyy too hot outside) feasting on Home-made Coleslaw (Cabbage, Carrots, Celerey, Onions, and Mayonnaise), Homemade Potato Salad with Spearmint and Peppermint from our garden, Pasta Salad, Smoked Seasoned Turkey, Chilled Roast Turkey, a leg of Ham, then (fruit)Mince Pies, Christmas Cake, Mango Jelly (Jello in US English) with sliced fresh Mangos in, Blue- and Rasp- Berry Jello/Jelly, homemade Fruit Salad with locally-grown seedless grapes of 2 varieties, Red Delicious and Granny Smith apples, Japanese Ya pears, lashings of Mango, fresh oranges, and both Ice and Fresh Cream. Bowls of locally-grown cherries. Watermelon. Oh yes, there was some iceberg lettuce, cucumber, and beetroot salad too, and bread rolls. And the Camembert, Jarlsberg, Edam, Sage Derby and Colby cheeses, with chilli-stuffed olives. Chocolate in wholesale quantities, and as the piece de resistance home-made caramels from a good friend in Minnesota (who incidentally is Gnat Lilacs´ Nana).

Shandy and Ginger Beer to wash it all down, with a glass of Methode Champagnois from Germany for the toast. Some nice Earl Grey tea to go with the cake.

I confess it was 48 hours before I spared a thought for the 12 million people suffering from Malnutrition in North Korea. Something must be done, I just don´t know what.

Australian Space Programme

I´ve written in past posts about the Chinese space programme, and even the Nigerian one. But I´d missed this little article from the Sydney Morning Herald.
Nine private and public stakeholders have joined the Australian Space Network and others will be recruited next year.

The network founders set three initial goals:
  • A Fedsat 2 satellite operating by 2005;
  • Australian instruments on Mars by 2010; and
  • Australian-produced microsatellites orbiting Mars by 2015.

The network's aim is to bring the country's space professionals and companies together to compete for high-technology projects sponsored by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Space Agency.
I´m still Googling to find where to sign up.

Wednesday, 24 December 2003

Rudolph's Performance Appraisal

I once had an experience much like this, only worse. I left the firm as soon as I could. Shortly thereafter the management fired the last remaining competent employees, and a few months later that branch was closed down. Office Politics.

So please Read the Story....

Tuesday, 23 December 2003

Why is a Rocket like a Zeppelin?

Go over to SpaceDaily to find out.

Really, there are some astounding - and worrying - parallels.

While we're on matters Spacey, Samizdata.net has a picture-filled post on the Mars Landers that (hopefully) will soon be busy exploring the Red Planet.

Finally, the Rocket Man talks about Incremental Development in the context of Space Travel. As Incremental Development has been the tool of choice for making complex Software Systems since the year dot, I think he´s right on target.

Monday, 22 December 2003

In Defence of Polly Toynbee

OK, for those who haven´t caught up with the Blogosphere, Polly Toynbee is the Guardianista who publically confessed to having fallen for a Nigerian Scam.
With embarrassment, feeling a fool, I admit I was a victim of a Nigerian fraud. Looking back now, I can't think why I was so easily taken in but I did make a reasonable check.
Ms Toynbee has been the butt of many jokes for this. The general concensus amongst right-wing blogs is "Typical Leftie, Dumb as a Post, you have to be not just Thick but extraordinarily Thick to fall for a Nigerian Scam."
But having read the article, I must disagree. The Scam was not the ordinary "Greetings, I´ve just stolen $25 million and I need someone to get it out of the country..." type, but a relatively sophisticated Spanish Prisoner variety, complete with plausible documentary evidence, designed to pray on people who wear their hearts on their sleeve. To Altruism, not Greed.
A hand-written letter arrived from a Nigerian 14-year-old called Sandra. It was nicely written on a religious school's headed paper, though not too perfect, telling me her sad story. Both her parents had died and she had to complete her last two years of school. Her results were good, and it would only cost £100 a year for the last two years to cover the cost. I wrote back and I also wrote to her headmaster, whose name appeared on the school letterhead, at a PO box. He wrote back in more adult handwriting to say Sandra was indeed a needy and promising student, and he enclosed her last term's report. It was an impressive document, each subject carefully filled in by a teacher with different writing, giving an excellent but not over-the-top report, with some subjects subtly lagging a bit behind. So I sent a cheque for £200 and received another of Sandra's letters, a bit too full of God's mercy and Jesus's blessings for my taste. I had an idea I might keep in touch with her to see what became of her. If I had any doubts, £200 was a modest sum for all the effort a fraudster took to create these letters.
Ms Toynbee made a reasonable, rational decision : the amount involved was "modest" and the evidence was plausible enough to believe. If true, the payoff was huge, if false, the penalty minor. And examine the evidence, the detail, she looked for. Plausible Notepaper. Different hands for the teacher. It took a fair degree of sophistication to fool her. She continues:
But it wasn't about the £200. Not long afterwards my bank received a letter with a perfect copy of my signature, giving my bank account numbers, asking for £1,000 to be transferred at once to a bank in Osaka, Japan.
Which indicates a somewhat sophisticated gang of international professional con-artists, not the "e;e-mail em all, and one in a million´s bound to be a moron" type. Given her high-profile as a compassionate, caring, left-leaning liberal (who presumably is thus both gullible and well-off), I have no doubt she was quite carefully targetted.

I´d like to think I wouldn´t have fallen for the same thing - I certainly would have performed some additional checks - but it would not have taken much more in the way of evidence to convince me that the original letter was possibly genuine. I cannot call her an Idiot for falling for this one.

And I must give her full marks for Courage. Her article is a warning, along the lines of "Here´s the mistake I made, so you won´t have to.". And she deliberately and knowingly holds herself up to public ridicule in order to do so.

So, in short, she not only admits her mistakes, but has the guts to say so in public, that others may learn. Two qualities in remarkably short supply amongst the Left in general, and not as common as I´d like amongst the Right either. She was also not afraid to put her money where her principles were, to do just a little bit of good in this sad old world. Another quality sadly lacking in both the Left and the Right.

But....

Later on she shows the almost universal unconscious racism of the Chattering classes, and the undercurrent of Anti-Americanism, blaming everything on the US, Bush, and Big Oil :
The image of capitalism now being spread about the world is cowboy stuff: little gleaned from America extols the virtue of regulation, restraint and control. We reap from the third world what we sow: if some Nigerians learned lessons in capitalism from global oil companies that helped corrupt and despoil that land, it is hardly surpising they absorbed some of the Texan oil values that now rule the White House.
Cartoon History 3To the extent that her comments hold substance, as has been mentioned by other commentators, it´s not that them Playful Innocent Darkies have been corrupted by the White Man´s Evil Cunning, it´s more of a case of some Western Organisations following the same business-model as Medieval Robber Barons, who in turn were but naive tyros compared to the sophisticated West-African Empires of the Middle Ages. I suggest she go read Larry Gonick's Cartoon History of the Universe Vol III, which has a shallow but entertaining treatment of the subject - along with a bibliography of primary sources for deeper study. (No, I don´t get paid for the link to Amazon.com). And the implication that Nigerian Scamming is "All Bush´s Fault" is ...umm... less than intellectually rigorous. It´s embaressingly Daft.

But ignore the mild Ignorance and unconscious Racism that underlies and passes for much of today´s Leftist doctrine, and there´s much to admire. To all my comrades-in-arms who are Fighting the Good Fight against Saddamists and Idiotarians, if you haven´t given Toys to Iraq, or contributed in some other small way to alleviating the world´s misery, (Carmel and I sponsor a kid in East Timor via the CCF) then may I humbly suggest that the criticism of Polly Toynbee be accompanied by some action. She gave $500 (Aus) to some thieves, thereby increasing in some small way the world´s woes. How about we raise the same amount for victims of Islamofascists and Saddamites who genuinely need it? Otherwise we´ll be like the Idiotarians : all incompletely-thought-out good intentions and words, without the guts or rationality to back them up. If your Randite principles stand in the way of giving anything to anyone, maybe they need re-examination. Circumstances alter Cases, and you should never let your philosophy prevent you from doing the right thing. If (like me) you´re distrustful of Foreign Aid and Charities generally, there are links above to two which are bona fide. Or there´'s always the Magen David Adom, the child that the Christian- and Muslim- dominated ICRC (International Commitee of the Red Cross/Crescent) doesn´t want to acknowledge. Over to you.

Breaking the Law

Someone only a few kilometres away from me, at the Australian National University, has been breaking the law. Not content with Squeezing Light and teleporting it, they're now flagrantly violating the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

The 2nd Law, that in a closed system things get messier over time, has long been known to be a true as a statistical approximation. It was also thought to be less true when dealing with short periods of time and small scales. For example, it´s possible that all the air molecules in the room you're in will suddenly, and by chance, all congregate in a corner of it, leaving you gasping in vacuum. But although possible, if you ran a trillion universes each for a trillion times the period since the Big Bang, odds are that that state of affairs wouldn´t occur in even one of them.

The odds of Michael Moore looking like Twiggy tomorrow are considerably greater.

What the ANU team have done was to make an experiment that gave some insight into just how small things have to be, and over what time periods, effects similar to eggs unscrambling, or things falling up happen.
[The] Second Law of Thermodynamics says that the disorder of the Universe can only increase in time, but the equations of classical and quantum mechanics, the laws that govern the behaviour of the very small, are time reversible.

A few years ago, a tentative theoretical solution to this paradox was proposed - the so-called Fluctuation Theorem - stating that the chances of the Second Law being violated increases as the system in question gets smaller.

This means that at human scales, the Second Law dominates and machines only ever run in one direction. However, when working at molecular scales and over extremely short periods of time, things can take place in either direction.

Now, scientists have demonstrated that principle experimentally.
The research also has practical application is the near-future:
The scientists say their finding could be important for the emerging science of nanotechnology. Researchers envisage a time when tiny machines no more than a few billionths of a metre across surge though our bodies to deliver drugs and destroy disease-causing pathogens.

This research means that on the very small scales of space and time such machines may not work the way we expect them to.

Essentially, the smaller a machine is, the greater the chance that it will run backwards. It could be extremely difficult to control.

The researchers said: "This result has profound consequences for any chemical or physical process that occurs over short times and in small regions."
From the looks of it, many biological processes could be subject to such small-scale time-reversal effects, though for such short periods that it´s "lost in the noise". Nanotech - a subject of great importance which I´ve been meaning to post on for a while now - may be different. Nanothech may be harder than we think. Stay Tuned, because if you´re in the 20-to-60 age band, your life (or at least your longevity) may depend on it. The Jehovah´s Witnesses are probably right in this regard, just not for the reasons they think.


Not Many People Know That...

Samizdata.Net has a truly educational article about the Bizarre state of International Airline Regulation.

OK, compared with the recent Libyan renouncement of Nuclear and Germ Warfare, and the capture of that Stalin-manque Saddam, this may appear of no great worth and moment.

Yet it affects every person who flies over national borders.
It was recently announced that after talks between the British and Hong Kong governments, Richard Branson's Virgin Atlantic Airways had won its long desired rights to fly from London to Sydney, Australia. In return for this, Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways were given the right to fly from London Heathrow to New York and other cities in the United States. Various observations were made about how an additional competitor on each route would increase competition and give passengers lower fares and more options.

While this is true as far as it goes, this is a pretty bizarre paragraph if you think about it. Why does the British government have to negotiate with the Hong Kong government before a private company can fly to Australia? In what parallel universe is the quid pro quo you must offer to get your airline permission to fly to Australia the permission for another airline from a third country to fly to New York?
Please go read the whole thing to find out how this truly dadaesque set of affairs came about, what "fifth freedom" rights are, and more. As I said before, it´s an education.